Jump Trading Takes Equity in Kalshi & Polymarket; Deal Ties Stakes to ‘US Volume’
The high-frequency giant moves from renter to owner, with a deal structure that explicitly signals Polymarket’s aggressive return to U.S. soil.
Chicago-based HFT giant Jump Trading has moved from renter to owner in the prediction market sector, securing equity stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket. The move, reported by Bloomberg, marks a pivotal shift: the firm is no longer just providing liquidity to these venues. It is betting on their infrastructure.
The Deal: Equity-for-Flow
The deal structures diverge sharply, revealing how Jump views the regulatory risk of each platform. Jump’s stake in the CFTC-regulated Kalshi is a fixed equity slice, negotiated upfront. In contrast, its agreement with Polymarket is performance-based: Jump’s equity upside is directly tied to the volume and liquidity it provides to Polymarket’s U.S. operations.
This specific clause is the market signal. Polymarket, which historically geofenced U.S. users to appease the CFTC, is now explicitly incentivizing institutional liquidity for a U.S. product. This suggests the platform’s return to American soil, likely via the licensed infrastructure built out over the last six months, is imminent and institutionally backed.
Institutional Context
Prediction markets have graduated from niche experiments to derivatives powerhouses. Kalshi recently secured funding at an $11 billion valuation, while Polymarket, bolstered by this implied U.S. re-entry, is commanding valuations upwards of $15 billion. For Jump, a firm that cut its teeth on high-frequency strategies in traditional markets, this is a play on convergence. They are betting that event contracts will trade with the same velocity and thin spreads as traditional futures.
The structure creates a positive feedback loop: Jump provides deep liquidity to earn equity, which tightens spreads, attracting more retail volume, which in turn increases the value of that equity.
Market Reaction
Despite the institutional vote of confidence, UMA (the oracle token underpinning Polymarket) slid 3.8% to $0.51, failing to catch a bid as broader markets cooled with Bitcoin hovering near $84,000. Traders appear focused elsewhere: on-chain prediction markets now price the probability of a native Polymarket token launch in 2026 at 71%, up significantly following the Jump news. The smart money isn’t buying the oracle; it’s waiting for the platform token.
