ARK Invest 2030 Outlook: Bitcoin Base Case at $760K, Market Cap to Hit $28 Trillion
Cathie Wood’s firm projects a $28 trillion crypto market by 2030, with Bitcoin commanding a $16 trillion valuation driven by institutional supply shocks.
ARK Investment Management released its Big Ideas 2026 report on Wednesday, projecting the global cryptocurrency market capitalization will surge to $28 trillion by 2030. The forecast anchors on a base-case scenario where Bitcoin hits approximately $760,000 per coin, a roughly 700% upside from current levels near $94,000.
The $28 Trillion Breakdown
The firm’s latest analysis outlines a bifurcated growth engine. While Bitcoin is expected to command the majority of value as a monetary asset, smart contract platforms are projected to capture trillions in utility value:
- Bitcoin (BTC): Projected to reach a $16 trillion market cap. The thesis relies on Bitcoin cementing its role as "digital gold" and capturing significant flows from institutional treasuries and sovereign wealth funds.
- Smart Contract Platforms: Forecasted to hit $6 trillion, driven by the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) and the proliferation of decentralized financial services.
Current market data underscores the gap between reality and ARK’s projection. Bitcoin struggled to hold $94,500 (-1.6%) in early trading Thursday, with the broader crypto market cap sitting near $2 trillion, less than 10% of ARK’s 2030 target.
Institutional Supply Shock
A key driver in ARK’s model is the rapid accumulation of supply by non-retail entities. The report notes that U.S. Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries now control roughly 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, up from 8.7% in early 2025. This "supply lock" is expected to exacerbate volatility to the upside as demand shocks meet shrinking liquid inventory.
"Bitcoin may dominate as an asset, but DeFi and tokenized markets cannot scale until governments settle custody, compliance, and investor protection rules."
The report also highlights the RWA sector, estimating that tokenized assets, anchored by instruments like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and tokenized gold, could scale from $19 billion today to $11 trillion by the end of the decade. This would represent approximately 1.4% of global financial assets moving on-chain.
