Goldman Sachs Upgrades Coinbase to Buy; COIN Gaps 4% on ‘Structural Shift’ Thesis
Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro raises COIN target to $303, citing a 40% revenue shift to subscriptions and a 12% CAGR forecast.
Institutional Flip
Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase (COIN) to Buy from Neutral Monday, forcing the stock 4.5% higher in pre-market action as the bank signaled a decisive pivot in its crypto equity strategy. Lead analyst James Yaro raised the price target to $303, implying 28% upside from Friday’s close, citing a fundamental transition in Coinbase’s revenue quality from cyclical trading fees to sticky subscription income.
The Receipt: Structural vs. Cyclical
The upgrade hinges on Coinbase’s successful diversification. Yaro noted that subscription and services revenue now commands 40% of the company’s top line, up from less than 5% in 2020. This mix shift dampens the volatility that previously tethered the stock entirely to retail spot volumes.
Coinbase is transitioning from cyclical crypto trading exposure to more structural growth drivers, creating an attractive entry point after 12 months of underperformance.
Goldman forecasts a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Coinbase through 2027, outpacing the 8% average projected for its peer group. The bank explicitly validated CEO Brian Armstrong’s “everything exchange” strategy, which includes recent expansions into equities, prediction markets, and tokenized assets.
Market Divergence: eToro Downgraded
The bullishness on Coinbase came with a sharp rebuke for competitors. Goldman simultaneously downgraded eToro to Neutral, slashing its price target to $39. Yaro pointed to “intensifying competition” and rising customer acquisition costs as the brokerage struggles to defend market share against Coinbase’s entrenched infrastructure.
Price Action & Context
COIN shares reclaimed the $240 level in early trading, buoyed by Bitcoin holding support near $91,000. The upgrade marks a significant sentiment shift for Goldman, which remains “selectively constructive” on the broader crypto-brokerage sector for 2026 but now views Coinbase’s vertical integration, spanning custody, Base L2, and prime brokerage, as the sector’s defensive moat.
