Trump’s Venezuela Raid Spooks Macro; Bitcoin Holds $91K as ETFs Absorb $646M

Geopolitical Shock Meets Digital Hard Money

President Trump’s military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicólas Maduro has introduced a volatile new variable to the 2026 economic outlook, with MarketWatch reporting that the raid could exacerbate America’s “affordability crisis.” While traditional markets brace for energy sector fallout, crypto assets are displaying a decoupled resilience. Bitcoin held the $91,000 level through the weekend turmoil, underpinned by a massive $646 million institutional injection on the year’s first trading day.

The Raid: “Absolute Resolve”

In a pre-dawn operation Saturday, U.S. forces executed “Operation Absolute Resolve,” breaching a fortified palace in Caracas to detain Maduro and transfer him to the USS Iwo Jima. The geopolitical shock was immediate. While the long-term aim is regime change, the short-term reality is uncertainty in global energy markets. MarketWatch analysts note that further destabilization in Venezuela, a key oil producer, could spike fuel prices, feeding the very inflation metrics the U.S. Federal Reserve has struggled to tamp down.

Institutional Flows: The Pre-Raid Signal

Before the first boot hit the ground in Caracas, institutional capital was already aggressively positioning into crypto. Data from the first trading session of 2026 (Friday, Jan. 2) reveals a combined $646 million net inflow into U.S. spot crypto ETFs.

• Bitcoin Dominance: BTC funds captured $471.3 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for ~$287 million.
• Ethereum Strength: ETH ETFs added $174.5 million, signaling renewed confidence in the asset’s utility beyond simple speculation.

The timing is critical. These inflows reversed a year-end trend of outflows, suggesting that smart money front-ran the weekend’s volatility or is actively re-allocating to crypto as a hedge against the kind of “affordability” and debasement risks highlighted by the Venezuela fallout.

Price Action: The $91K Fortress

While geopolitical escalation typically triggers a “flight to cash,” Bitcoin’s reaction has been counter-intuitive. The asset is trading firmly above $91,200, shrugging off the risk-off sentiment that often plagues equity futures during military interventions. Ethereum followed suit, reclaiming the $3,145 zone.

“The market has absorbed about 35% of the decline… 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a sharp rise or collapse,” noted analysts reviewing the post-raid landscape.

The divergence is stark: Traditional analysts fear an inflationary oil shock could worsen the consumer “crisis,” while the crypto market is pricing in the monetary response to that crisis, liquidity expansion.