Gold Shatters $5,000 Barrier as Geopolitical Risk Leaves Bitcoin Behind
Gold surges past $5,000/oz as Goldman Sachs raises targets and central bank buying hits 60 tonnes/month, leaving Bitcoin stalled at $87k.
The Safe-Haven Split
Gold has officially entered unchartered territory, piercing the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time in history Monday. The move dismantles the psychological resistance that had capped the metal for weeks, driven by what Goldman Sachs analysts are now calling a “structural shift” in global risk appetite. While the precious metal rallied 60% through 2025, its digital counterpart has failed to capture the same safe-haven bid: Bitcoin remains range-bound near $87,000, widening the correlation gap between the two assets to its largest point this cycle.
The Goldman Re-Rate
In a client note released Wednesday, Goldman Sachs aggressively hiked its December 2026 price target to $5,400 per ounce (up from $4,900). The bank’s commodities desk, led by Daan Struyven, flagged a critical change in market behavior: private sector hedges are becoming “sticky.” Unlike the tactical trades of 2024, institutional capital is now treating gold allocations as long-term insurance against fiscal sustainability risks rather than short-term spec plays.
“We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks… don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast.” Goldman Sachs Investment Research.
Central Banks Go Nuclear on Buying
The rally isn’t just retail fear; it’s sovereign accumulation. Goldman’s data indicates central bank purchases are now averaging 60 tonnes per month, a massive deviation from the pre-2022 norm of roughly 17 tonnes. Emerging market central banks, particularly the PBoC, are aggressively shifting reserves away from fiat treasuries, creating a price floor that speculators are struggling to short.
The Greenland Risk Premium
The timing of the breakout aligns directly with escalating tensions over the “Greenland Framework.” Following the Davos summit, where President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte discussed a potential framework for the Arctic territory, markets have priced in renewed geopolitical friction. The inclusion of the proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system in these talks has spooked European desks, driving capital into physical hard assets and away from risk-on equities.
Bitcoin’s Identity Crisis
The divergence is stark. While gold acts as the primary hedge against the Greenland/NATO instability, Bitcoin has traded more like a tech stock, stalling at $87k. The “digital gold” narrative is facing a liquidity reality check: when sovereign risk goes vertical, capital flows to the asset with the 5,000-year track record, not the 17-year one.
