Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash ‘Weakest Bear Case in History’ as BTC Reclaims $70K
Bernstein analysts dismiss the 45% Bitcoin correction as a “confidence wobble” with no structural damage, reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026.
Bitcoin snapped back above $70,000 on Monday, erasing weekend losses as Wall Street researchers urged institutions to buy the fear. Despite a bruising 45% drawdown from the October 2025 high of ~$126,000, analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on a $150,000 price target for year-end 2026, framing the correction as a sentiment crisis rather than a structural failure.
The ‘Weakest’ Bear Market
In a note to clients led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein argued that the current market plumbing remains pristine compared to the “toxic leverage” cycles of 2018 or 2022. There are no exchange insolvencies, no algorithmic stablecoin collapses, and no miner capitulation spirals. Instead, the firm describes the sub-$70K action as a liquidity-driven “confidence wobble” magnified by macro headwinds.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history… nothing blew up.”
The thesis? The panic is superficial. While spot ETF outflows have made headlines, they represent just ~7% of total assets under management, a minor trim in the grand scheme of institutional allocations.
Whales Buy the Dip
On-chain data supports the institutional accumulation narrative. The Coinbase Premium Index, a key gauge of U.S. institutional demand, flipped positive for the first time since mid-January. A positive premium indicates that spot prices on Coinbase Pro (favored by U.S. institutions) are trading higher than on offshore venues like Binance, signaling net buying from American capital allocators.
Retail traders, however, remain shell-shocked. Sentiment on platforms like Reddit has arguably hit meme-levels of despair, with trending threads declaring the onset of a multi-year crypto winter. This divergence, institutions buying quietly while retail capitulates loudly, often marks a local bottom in high-volatility assets.
Price Action
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $70,077 at press time, recovering from a brief wick down to $60,000 late last week. Volume has stabilized, though the asset remains significantly below the $126,000 peak set in October. For the $150,000 target to hold, bulls must defend the $60,000 support level and reclaim the 200-day moving average in the coming weeks.
