Strategy Signals Fresh Bitcoin Buy While Sitting on $3.4B Paper Loss

Michael Saylor is doubling down. On Sunday, the Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder posted his signature "orange dots" tracker on X, a signal markets historically interpret as confirmation of an imminent Bitcoin acquisition. The move comes immediately after the company reported a staggering $12.4 billion Q4 net loss, driven by the aggressive mark-to-market devaluation of its treasury.

Buying Into the Red

The timing is defiant. With Bitcoin trading near $61,000, Strategy’s massive 713,502 BTC hoard, approximately 3.4% of the total supply, is officially underwater. Filings indicate the company’s average cost basis has climbed to the mid-$76,000s following a heavy accumulation spree in late 2025. This leaves the firm staring at an estimated $3.4 billion unrealized loss on its balance sheet.

Saylor’s post suggests the company is deploying capital raised during the recent dip, seemingly unfazed by the discrepancy between its stock performance and its asset base.

"Operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2025 includes an unrealized loss on the Company's digital assets of $17.4 billion," the company noted in its latest earnings release.

The High-Beta Trap

Shareholders are feeling the friction. Strategy’s stock (ticker: MSTR) slid 17% following the earnings disclosure, as the reality of its leveraged position set in. The company has effectively transitioned from a software firm into a high-beta Bitcoin ETF, using debt and equity dilution to chase spot prices.

While the firm touted a 22.8% BTC yield for 2025, a metric measuring the accretion of Bitcoin per share, the market’s focus has shifted to the liquidity risks of holding such a levered position during a prolonged drawdown. The "orange dots" may signal conviction to the faithful, but for institutional risk desks, they represent a stubborn refusal to de-risk in the face of macro headwinds.