Ukraine Blocks Polymarket; 34th Nation to Ban Platform Over ‘Gambling’ Status
Ukraine enforces Resolution No. 695 to block Polymarket, citing unlicensed gambling and war betting, while Tennessee opens a U.S. state-level front against Kalshi and Crypto.com.
The Compliance Walls Close In
The global regulatory net around prediction markets tightened this week as Ukraine formally blocked access to Polymarket, becoming the 34th jurisdiction to blacklist the platform. The National Commission for Electronic Communications (NCEC) enforced the ban under Resolution No. 695, mandating ISPs to restrict the domain immediately. The trigger? Unlicensed gambling.
This isn’t just a bureaucratic checkbox. Ukrainian regulators specifically flagged the platform’s “war contracts,” bets on the timing of Russian occupation of specific cities, as a moral and legal violation. The ban creates a hard deadlock: Ukraine has no legal framework for prediction markets, meaning Polymarket has no path to compliance even if it sought one.
The Geofence Expands
Polymarket’s accessibility map is shrinking. The platform is now restricted in major economies including France, Germany, the UK, and Italy. The narrative is identical across borders: statutes written for sports betting are being weaponized against information markets. Liquidity is fleeing to VPNs, but the institutional on-ramps are being bricked up.
The betting patterns on the Russian invasion raised red flags… regulating outcome contracts as simple slots.
The Second Front: Tennessee vs. CFTC
The pressure isn’t limited to Europe. On January 9, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council opened a new front in the U.S. state-level crackdown, issuing cease-and-desist letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com.
Tennessee explicitly rejected the “event contract” defense. Regulators demanded these platforms halt operations for state residents and refund all deposits by January 31, 2026, threatening fines of $25,000 per violation. This sets up a direct collision between state gambling laws and federal CFTC oversight.
Market Reaction: The crackdown has not yet dented the broader crypto market’s risk appetite. Cronos (CRO), the native token of the targeted Crypto.com exchange, shrugged off the Tennessee notice, trading flat at $0.092 (+1%) as traders bet on a lengthy legal stalemate rather than an immediate shutdown.
