CZ Calls ‘Supercycle’ at Davos; Declares 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Obsolete

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao declared the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle "broken" during a CNBC Squawk Box interview at the World Economic Forum on Friday. Speaking from Davos, Zhao argued that the entry of sovereign buyers, specifically the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, has created a structural demand floor that prevents the catastrophic 80% drawdowns seen in previous bear markets.

The Institutional Floor

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $89,900 at press time, stabilizing after a 30% correction from its November 2025 all-time high of $126,000. While retail sentiment remains shaken, Zhao dismissed the recent volatility as standard market noise rather than the onset of a crypto winter.

"I have a very strong feeling that there will be a supercycle for Bitcoin in 2026," Zhao stated. "Given that the U.S. is so pro-crypto, and other countries are following, we will likely break the historical four-year pattern."

The thesis rests on the Trump administration’s aggressive digital asset pivots since January 2025, including the establishment of the White House Digital Asset Working Group and the authorization of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. These policy shifts have converted the asset class from a retail speculation vehicle into a component of national treasury strategy.

Grayscale: 2026 is the Divergence Point

Zhao’s commentary aligns with institutional data. A December 17 Grayscale report identified 2026 as the year Bitcoin decouples from its halving-based cycles. The asset manager noted that ETF inflows and sovereign accumulation have dampened the volatility that typically follows a post-halving peak. Unlike the 2018 or 2022 cycles, where liquidity evaporated instantly, current order books show sustained bid depth from institutional heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity, even as prices dip below $90,000.