Portugal Orders 48-Hour Polymarket Blackout as ‘Global Ban List’ Hits 34
Portugal issues a 48-hour shutdown order after €110M in election bets, joining Ukraine and Hungary in a rapid-fire regulatory crackdown.
Liquidity on the world’s largest prediction market faces a new geofence. Portugal’s gambling regulator (SRIJ) has ordered Polymarket to cease operations within 48 hours, citing unlicensed gambling violations following a frenzy of €110 million (~$118M) in wagers on Sunday’s presidential election.
The enforcement action marks a tipping point for the platform, which now faces restrictions in at least 34 jurisdictions. While Polymarket has weathered regulatory friction before, the coordination between EU member states and fresh allegations of “God-mode” insider trading are forcing a fundamental repricing of regulatory risk.
The 48-Hour Ultimatum
The SRIJ (Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos) flagged the platform after betting volumes on the Portuguese election eclipsed €100 million. Regulators specifically targeted “suspicious” betting patterns where odds for candidate António José Seguro surged to 95% probability hours before official vote counts began. A discrepancy suggesting traders were front-running the market with embargoed exit poll data.
Failure to comply by Thursday will trigger ISP-level blocking orders, a tactic already deployed by Hungary just 24 hours prior. The domino effect is accelerating: France, Belgium, and Italy have all tightened restrictions since the year began.
War Bets and ‘God Mode’
The crackdown isn’t purely bureaucratic; it’s ethical. Ukraine blocked the platform earlier this week (Jan 13) after officials flagged nearly $100 million in bets on the timing of Russian advancements in Donbas. Regulators accused the platform of monetizing geopolitical tragedy and utilizing the DeepState API without authorization to settle “war contracts.”
“Profiteering should have no place in the federal government, period… If you’re both a government insider and a participant in the prediction market, you now have a perverse incentive to push policies that line your pockets.” Rep. Ritchie Torres
The integrity of the “oracle” itself is under fire. In the U.S., Representative Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 this week. The legislation follows a highly suspicious $30,000 bet that netted over $400,000 by correctly predicting the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, hours before the operation was made public.
Market Impact
Despite the headwinds, Polymarket volume remains stubborn. The platform logged a record $701.7 million in daily volume recently, suggesting that while front-ends are being blocked, the smart money, likely using VPNs or direct contract interaction, isn’t leaving. The question now is whether the protocol can survive as a “gray market” utility or if the fiat on-ramps required to settle these massive volume spikes will be choked off by banking partners wary of the growing global ban list.
