Supply Shock Imminent: Markets Brace for $5.5B January Unlock Wave as HYPE Liquidates Tomorrow
January brings a $5.5 billion supply shock led by ONDO and HYPE, with $328 million hitting the Hyperliquid order book tomorrow.
The $5.5 Billion Hangover
The post-holiday liquidity drift is over. January is poised to flood the market with $5.5 billion in unlocked supply, forcing traders to price in dilution across four major protocols. While $3 billion of this will hit via linear vesting (a slow bleed). The immediate threat lies in the $2.5 billion scheduled for cliff releases, supply shocks that hit order books instantaneously.
The first stress test arrives tomorrow, Jan. 6.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): The First Domino
Hyperliquid faces a $328 million unlocked supply injection on Tuesday. Approximately 12.46 million HYPE tokens, allocated to core contributors, will become liquid. Despite the looming dilution, price action has been counter-intuitive: HYPE held $26.45 (+4%) in early Monday trading, with derivatives volume spiking 28% to $1.21 billion.
The institutional setup is defensive. Open interest edged up to $1.43 billion, suggesting market makers are hedging spot exposure rather than betting on a breakout. As noted in recent market data, the token remains down 55% from its September high, and tomorrow’s release represents 3.6% of the circulating supply, enough to wipe out shallow bid depth if contributors liquidate early.
The Heavy Hitters: ONDO and BGB
If HYPE is the tremor, Ondo Finance (ONDO) is the quake. On Jan. 19, the protocol will unlock 1.9 billion tokens valued at over $840 million. This single event accounts for roughly 15% of the entire month’s unlock volume. The tranche is split between founders, team members, and private investors, cohorts typically less sensitive to price slippage than retail holders.
Bitget Token (BGB) follows on Jan. 26 with a $500 million release (140 million tokens). Unlike Ondo, BGB’s release is heavily weighted toward branding and team incentives, potentially dampening immediate sell pressure if the exchange internalizes the supply for future campaigns.
Institutional Outlook
The divergence between spot price resilience and rising open interest indicates traders are front-running the unlocks with delta-neutral strategies, rather than outright selling.
Elsewhere, the official Trump (TRUMP) token adds $270 million to the ledger on Jan. 18. With memecoin dominance swelling in early 2026, this unlock serves as a volatility proxy for the broader political finance sector. The market has absorbed the news, but the liquidity mechanics of a $5.5 billion expansion in 30 days remain the primary headwinds for Q1.
