Metaplanet’s ‘Yen Arbitrage’ Projected to Outpace Dollar Rivals by 6x
Analyst projections show Metaplanet’s 4.9% Yen debt costs create a compounding advantage over US rivals paying 12%, targeting a 20-year stock value of 2,520.
The battle for corporate Bitcoin supremacy has shifted from accumulation to cost of capital. While US competitors face double-digit interest rates to fund their treasuries, Tokyo-based Metaplanet is exploiting a structural crack in global finance: the Yen carry trade.
New projections from analyst Adam Livingston indicate Metaplanet’s Yen-funded strategy could deliver 4-6x higher equity returns over two decades compared to dollar-denominated rivals. The firm concluded 2025 with 35,102 BTC on its balance sheet, cementing its status as the largest public holder in Asia.
The Yield Spread Edge
The core thesis rests on a massive disparity in borrowing costs. Metaplanet’s recent Yen-denominated debt carries a 4.9% coupon. In contrast, US-based competitors, navigating a tighter Federal Reserve environment, are paying 10-12% on similar convertible debt instruments.
This spread creates a compounding velocity that dollar-based firms cannot mathematically match. According to Livingston’s model:
- Metaplanet 20-Year Price Target: 2,520 (projected index)
- Dollar Competitors: 450–690
Every coupon Metaplanet pays is in a currency that has been losing value relative to both BTC and USD, so the real, BTC-denominated cost of that 4.9% coupon keeps shrinking.
The Dual Growth Engine
Metaplanet isn’t just betting on Bitcoin; it is shorting the Yen. The strategy relies on two simultaneous tailwinds:
- Asset Appreciation: A baseline 20% annual growth in Bitcoin.
- Liability Erosion: A projected 2% annual depreciation of the Yen against the Dollar.
Combined, these factors generate an estimated 22.4% gross annual return before financing costs. After paying the 4.9% coupon, Metaplanet retains a net spread of ~17.5%. Dollar-based rivals, burdened by higher rates and a stronger currency, capture significantly less of that upside.
The 1% Supply Goal
The company’s aggregation targets are aggressive. Filings indicate plans to hold 210,000 BTC—roughly 1% of the total circulating supply—by 2027. This accumulation is supported by its Bitcoin Income Generation unit, which generated approximately $54 million in revenue in 2025, beating internal forecasts.
While Metaplanet shares closed the year at 405 Yen (approx. $2.60), the firm is betting that its low-cost debt machine will force a repricing as the interest rate gap widens.
