Fidelity Macro Chief Declares Bitcoin Bull Run Over, Targets $65K Low

Fidelity’s Timmer: $125K Was The Top

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, signaled the official end of Bitcoin’s current four-year cycle in a post on X (formerly Twitter) late Thursday. Timmer identified the October high of $125,000 as the definitive cycle peak, warning that 2026 will likely serve as a “year off” for the asset. Bitcoin (BTC) continued to struggle near $86,200 Friday, failing to reclaim the $90,000 psychological level following the statement.

Timmer’s analysis rests on historical cycle duration rather than immediate macro headwinds. He noted that the October peak arrived after “145 months of rallying,” a timeframe that aligns with previous cycle exhaustion points. “Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year,” Timmer wrote, projecting a mean reversion that could see prices slide another 25% to find structural support between $65,000 and $75,000.

The 10/10 Liquidation Shadow

The bearish pivot follows a disastrous Q4 for crypto markets, punctuated by the “10/10” liquidation event. A $19 billion leverage flush in early October that halted the run to $130,000. While Timmer views this as the start of a prolonged winter, crypto-native firms argue the crash was a technical reset rather than a cycle-ending shift.

While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four year cycle halving phase, both in price and time.

Delphi Digital: The Bull Case Remains

Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, directly contested Fidelity’s cycle-end thesis. Shaughnessy argued that the market is currently “rubber banding” from the October leverage flush rather than entering a secular bear phase. “Once that’s worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026,” Shaughnessy noted, citing the divergence between price action and continued progress in regulated investment products.