Iran Blackout Traps 7M Crypto Users; BTC Hashrate Impact Negligible
A nationwide internet blackout in Iran has frozen access for 7 million crypto users and stalled billions in flows, but global hashrate and BTC price remain unaffected.
Digital Darkness Hits 7 Million Users
Iran plunged into a confirmed nationwide internet blackout Thursday amid escalating anti-regime protests that have left at least 44 dead. The shutdown has effectively air-gapped an estimated seven million Iranian crypto users from the global market, freezing access to what TRM Labs identified as $3.7 billion in crypto flows tracked between January and July 2025.
Real-time network data from NetBlocks corroborated the collapse in connectivity, which follows a week of intensifying demonstrations over economic deterioration. For local users, the blackout is catastrophic. With domestic exchange Nobitex still limping after a $90 million hack in June 2025, the inability to access foreign liquidity pools or even broadcast transactions has rendered digital assets temporarily illiquid for the civilian population.
Market Reaction: Bitcoin Shrugs
The blackout triggered zero volatility in global spot markets. Bitcoin (BTC) held firm at $91,000 (+0.5%) Friday morning, while Ethereum (ETH) consolidated near $3,100. The market’s indifference highlights a shift in risk pricing: Iran’s influence on price discovery has evaporated as institutional flows from ETFs dominate order books.
The Mining Myth
Fears of a hashrate crash are mathematically unfounded. While Iran was once a heavyweight miner, state crackdowns and power shortages have whittled its share of global hashrate to between 2-4%. Even if every Iranian rig went offline instantly, the drop would be within the margin of daily variance.
The network difficulty adjustment mechanism automates the response to any hashrate drop. A <5% loss is absorbed within a single epoch (2,016 blocks), making the event a non-factor for network security.
Satellite and Starlink: The Last Mile
With terrestrial internet severed, users are reverting to high-latency alternatives. Smuggled Starlink terminals, though illegal, offer the only high-bandwidth uplink capable of broadcasting transactions. For passive monitoring, Blockstream Satellite continues to broadcast Bitcoin blocks to the region, allowing users with a receiver to sync their nodes without an internet connection. However, the inability to transmit data without an uplink remains the critical failure point for commerce.
