Bitcoin Holds Near $77,000 as Iran Strikes Push Brent Above $95 and Bond Yields Climb

Bitcoin traded near $77,000 on Wednesday while renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities drove oil higher and a global bond selloff lifted yields. The question now is whether the cryptocurrency’s August rally survives a geopolitical shock.

Brent crude climbed above $95 a barrel. The strikes stoked fears of further disruption to energy supplies. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield stayed above 3% for a second straight session, a level not seen since 1996 until Tuesday. U.S. and European yields rose in tandem.

Bitcoin has moved between $76,800 and $81,600 since jumping 23% just over a week ago, according to The Block. The pullback from that local high has stayed contained. Derivatives positioning remains light after the August rally. Futures and perpetual open interest stood at $38.6 billion as of Tuesday, down 1.8% over the past week, with funding rates in neutral territory, K33 researchers wrote.

“Crypto continues to show its relative resilience against an increasingly difficult global backdrop,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, told The Block. “Dips continue to attract demand, reinforcing our view that the market is consolidating after its recent surge and allowing overbought technical readings to unwind.”

Spot demand underpins the tape. Global bitcoin ETPs absorbed 52,152 BTC in August, the most since November 2024. That marks a reversal from record ETF outflows in May and June, which appear to have been driven mainly by retail investors rather than institutions, Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, told The Block. Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million last week, its first purchase since June.

Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, told The Block traders were active in $80,000 September calls but that positioning did not suggest they expected an explosive move. “The expectation here is that we continue to hold the current levels for the next fortnight,” Howard said. “A pullback to the $65,000 range isn’t expected; neither is there pricing to indicate we move sharply higher.”

Friday’s U.S. payrolls report is the next scheduled risk event. Markets are pricing around a 70% chance of a September Federal Reserve hike following Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, according to CME FedWatch data cited by The Block.

Perpetual open interest sits near four-month lows. Traders, as ever, disagree on whether that is a floor or a coiled spring.