Sberbank sees $46 billion first-year crypto exchange volume as Russia’s new rules approach

Regulated crypto exchange trading in Russia could hit roughly 4 trillion rubles ($46.4 billion) in year one. That is Sberbank’s number. The country’s largest lender published the estimate through state news agency TASS on Saturday, offering the first bank-issued sizing of a market Moscow has spent two years quietly building around Western sanctions.

The figure lands a week before the law’s Sept. 1, 2026 effective date. The first time domestic exchanges, wallets and custody operate inside a formal rulebook rather than a gray zone.

Sberbank deputy chairman Anatoly Popov supplied the projection. By 2029, he told TASS, the volume could climb to about 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.1 billion). “We prepared for this in advance, and we already have practical experience working with cryptocurrency,” he said. “As soon as the law comes into full force, we will adapt Sber’s existing products to the new requirements and begin consistently expanding their lineup.”

Translation: Sberbank plans to move structured products it has run for qualified investors since 2025 onto the newly licensed exchange rails. Not a standing-start build. A migration.

The bank is moving on multiple fronts. A Friday TASS report quoted Popov saying Sberbank plans to issue loans secured by bitcoin, ether and USDT once the central bank approves those assets as collateral. He framed the timeline as conditional. Separately, the bank reportedly aims to launch a crypto wallet inside its Sber and Sber Investments apps alongside a digital-asset depository by early December. It has sold structured bonds and digital financial assets tied to bitcoin and ether to qualified investors since 2025.

President Vladimir Putin signed the framework into law in early August 2026. The legislative push began after Russia authorized crypto for cross-border trade in 2024. Under the statute, retail investors may buy the most liquid cryptocurrencies up to 300,000 rubles ($3,700) per year through each intermediary. Qualified investors face no cap. Payments for goods and services inside Russia remain banned. Cross-border settlements for foreign-trade contracts between residents and non-residents are permitted. The split is clean. Domestic exchange trading opens. Crypto still cannot circulate as money at the checkout.

Some provisions take longer to bite. Rules governing the issuance and circulation of crypto assets do not come into force until Sept. 1, 2027. Existing exchanges get a grace period through March 1, 2027, to come into compliance. Popov said Sberbank would widen its product range “immediately after all provisions of the new regulation come into force.” That language places full retail expansion on the 2027 timeline. Not next month’s launch.

What remains unclear is sequencing. The central bank has not said when it will approve anything. Popov’s collateral-loan plan, the retail cap, and the qualified-investor products all sit behind regulator sign-off that the statute authorizes but does not schedule.

The 4-trillion-ruble first-year estimate is a bank forecast. Not a government target. TASS did not disclose the methodology behind it. The figure also does not break out how much would come from domestic exchange trading versus cross-border settlement activity, which Russia has run informally since the finance ministry confirmed bitcoin use in foreign trade in late 2024. That reading matters. Sanctions-driven cross-border flows have carried most of Russia’s crypto volume to date. The new law formalizes domestic rails. It does not alter the external settlement track.

Traders, as ever, disagree on how quickly a sanctioned economy can absorb $46 billion of licensed turnover without spilling into the parallel market the law is meant to contain.