Eight of VanEck’s 12 Bitcoin Capitulation Signals Are Flashing

Bitcoin sat around $64,700 on Tuesday. That is roughly 48% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,300, and VanEck says eight of 12 signals in its “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are now flashing. Over the past three months, all 12 have dipped into their capitulation zone at one point or another, per the report.

The readings point to “what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation” and a market that is “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase,” VanEck researchers wrote. Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel are credited on the note.

Since the start of June, bitcoin has traded in a band between roughly $58,000 and $66,500. The quiet is notable. Volatility has dropped to cycle lows, Bitcoin Magazine reported, and traders are reportedly rotating toward higher-risk plays rather than working BTC’s compressed ranges.

The selling is coming from long-term holders. Coins held for more than a year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC. That pushed long-term holders’ share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months. This is the washout VanEck’s signals are picking up.

The timing fits the cycle frame. Three previous bitcoin bear phases averaged 12.7 months from peak to max drawdown, per VanEck. BTC is now roughly in its 11th month from its early October high. Historical cycles, the firm says, point to a potential transition to accumulation between September and November.

Not every signal doubles as a buy trigger. VanEck said so plainly. Periods when eight to 12 of the indicators were firing produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below baseline. The firm expects “a shallower trough this cycle,” pointing to spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, a larger institutional holder base, and the absence of widespread lender and exchange failures like FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna that amplified prior downturns.

Beneath the calm, there was a flicker of demand. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday. That was their strongest single day since May 5.

What the signals leave open is whether weak hands are done selling. Long-term holders have been the steady accumulator class for most of this cycle. A 356,000-coin distribution in a month is a supply event, not a verdict. And VanEck’s own caveat, that high signal counts have historically underperformed over the following quarters, keeps the call conditional.

Traders, as ever, disagree.