Blowout US Jobs Report Sends Bitcoin Below $80K on Fed Rate-Hike Fears

Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 on Friday after August payrolls tripled economists’ forecasts, reversing a rally that had carried the asset to a four-month high only hours earlier.

The US economy added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected 53,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and June and July payrolls were revised higher.

The print hit a market that had spent Thursday pricing in a Fed pause. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he’d be “inclined to support” holding rates steady, Decrypt reported. That signal helped bitcoin touch $82,240, its highest since May, and set off a short squeeze that wiped out more than $415 million in bearish bets.

Friday’s data killed the trade. Bitcoin dropped more than 2% within minutes of the release, falling to near $79,300, Decrypt reported. Cointelegraph traced the sell-off from $81,300 to local lows of $78,600 before a recovery to around $79,500. The two outlets’ figures differ. Likely snapshots taken at different points in a fast-moving session.

The reversal was not limited to crypto. The Dow dropped 226 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 slid 0.2%. Gold hit a session low of $4,380 an ounce, on pace for a second straight weekly loss. The two-year Treasury note touched its highest level since January 2025.

What shifted was the rate path. Fed funds futures put the odds of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting at 58%, up from 49.4% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Decrypt. Polymarket, cited by Cointelegraph, told a slightly different story. Probabilities that had swung to 60% pause after Waller’s remarks snapped back to an even 50/50 split. Different platforms, different numbers. Both point the same direction.

The repricing played out against an unusually quiet Fed. Cointelegraph noted a lack of forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh, plus the prospect of dissenters, has left markets with little anchor ahead of the meeting. President Donald Trump, posting on Truth Social Friday, called the jobs number “breaking all estimates” and urged the Fed to be “patriots,” warning that high interest rates put the US at an “unfair disadvantage.” Traders, as ever, disagree.

Underneath the spot-price churn, positioning leaned bullish. Spot bitcoin ETFs logged $730.8 million in net inflows on the day, Decrypt reported. The total crypto market cap sat near $2.67 trillion. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index read 75, still in “greed” territory despite the intraday drop.

That reading leaves out the quarter’s expiry flows. Bitcoin opened September near $77,500, and the month carries its own historical drag: BTC closed lower in 8 of the last 13 Septembers, earning it the nickname “Red September.” The next payrolls report lands October 2, two weeks after the Fed’s rate decision. Between now and then, the market is pricing policy in real time.

Spot ETF inflows and a greed reading say one thing. A 58% hike probability says another. The Fed decides on September 16.