Trump Jails “Venezuela Leaker”; $630K Polymarket Whales Go Dark
Two insider wallets sit frozen after Trump confirms the arrest of a government leaker, verifying the most brazen prediction market front-run in history.
Prediction markets face their “Black Friday” moment as insider trading allegations collide with federal arrests.
President-elect Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday that the government source behind the leaked Venezuela raid is now behind bars. The announcement triggered an immediate freeze across a cluster of high-profile Polymarket wallets that netted over $630,000 by front-running the military operation.
“The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. While he did not explicitly name the prediction market traders, the on-chain correlation is absolute.
The $630,000 Receipt
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain exposed three specific wallets that placed aggressive bets on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster just hours before U.S. forces initiated the surprise raid. These accounts were fresh, funded solely for this trade, and vanished immediately after cashing out.
- Wallet 0x31a5: Wagered $34,000 → $409,900 Profit
- Wallet SBet365: Wagered $25,000 → $145,600 Profit
- Wallet 0xa72D: Wagered $5,800 → $75,000 Profit
The timing was surgical. As Lookonchain noted, the wallets executed their positions with zero hedging, exhibiting a confidence level mathematically inconsistent with public information.
The 0x31a5 wallet turned $34K into nearly half a million in hours. This wasn’t speculation; it was a wire transfer.
Silence & The Iran Pivot
Following Trump’s confirmation of the arrest, two of the three whales (0x31a5 and 0xa72D) have gone completely dark, remaining inactive for 11 days. This silence strongly suggests their assets, or their owners, are frozen.
However, the third actor, SBet365, has resurfaced. On-chain data shows this wallet recently opened a new position betting on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being removed by January 31. The pivot from Venezuela to Iran signals either a reckless double-down or a different actor entirely.
The Institutional Hammer
The brazen nature of the Venezuela trade has accelerated regulatory action. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 this week, explicitly citing the Maduro bet as the catalyst. The bill aims to ban federal employees from wagering on political outcomes, closing the “gray zone” loop that currently allows officials to profit from their own policy decisions.
For prediction markets, the era of unchecked anonymity is ending. If the “Venezuela Leaker” is indeed linked to these wallets, the DOJ now has the precedent to pierce the veil of decentralized betting protocols.
