Trump Rules Out SBF Pardon; Prediction Odds Collapse to 6%

The Door Slams Shut

President Donald Trump explicitly rejected any possibility of pardoning FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, ending months of speculation in a New York Times interview published this week. When asked about potential clemency for high-profile inmates, Trump categorized Bankman-Fried alongside Sean "Diddy" Combs as individuals he has "no intention" of releasing. The statement effectively guarantees the 33-year-old former billionaire will serve the bulk of his 25-year federal sentence.

Market Reaction

The finality of Trump’s refusal triggered an immediate repricing of political risk. Prediction markets on Polymarket, which had assigned a 20% probability to an SBF pardon as recently as yesterday, crashed to 6% within hours of the publication. The FTX Token (FTT), effectively a memecoin tracking the estate’s residual sentiment, slid 4% to trade around $0.50.

The Compliance vs. Fraud Doctrine

Trump’s decision solidifies a clear demarcation line in his administration’s treatment of crypto convictions. The President previously granted clemency to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, and the BitMEX co-founders. These figures were viewed by the administration as victims of regulatory overreach or "compliance crimes."

Bankman-Fried’s conviction for orchestrating the theft of $8 billion in customer funds places him in a separate category. The administration views the misappropriation of user deposits as fundamentally distinct from failing to register with the CFTC or lapses in KYC protocols.

"Trump’s response was that he is not considering it." The New York Times

Political Reality

SBF’s history as a prolific donor to Democratic candidates likely compounded his isolation. While lobbying efforts from Bankman-Fried’s parents, both Stanford Law professors, reportedly targeted Trump’s inner circle, the political capital required to pardon a figure synonymous with massive retail losses proved nonexistent. Bankman-Fried’s only remaining path to a reduced sentence lies in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals.