Operation Absolute Resolve: Trump Captures Maduro; Bitcoin Defies ‘Risk-Off’ Panic at $91K
Bitcoin holds $91k as U.S. Special Forces capture Maduro in ‘Operation Absolute Resolve,’ defying typical geopolitical risk-off mechanics.
In a geopolitical shockwave that few priced in, U.S. Special Forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve early Saturday, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The lightning raid, confirmed by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, saw the Venezuelan leader flown directly to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. But while global capitals scrambled, the crypto market delivered a counter-intuitive signal: resilience.
President Donald Trump immediately announced the U.S. would temporarily “run” Venezuela, pledging to deploy American energy giants to rebuild the nation’s crumbled infrastructure. “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies… go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure,” Trump stated from Mar-a-Lago.
The ‘Hard Money’ Signal
Conventional wisdom dictates that military escalations trigger a flight to cash. Bitcoin disagreed. Despite an initial reflex dip to $89,600, BTC aggressively reclaimed the $91,000 level (+1.66% 24h) by Sunday morning. The asset’s refusal to bleed suggests the market is pricing this not as chaotic instability, but as a decisive regime change that could unlock liquidity.
“The likelihood of more negativity on the markets from that single event is relatively slim. It’s a planned and coordinated attack… and is already past us.”
. Michael van de Poppe, Founder, MN Trading Capital
On-chain data corroborates this stoicism. Large-scale holders (whales) did not distribute into the news; they accumulated. The divergence between retail anxiety and institutional holding patterns indicates that smart money views the U.S. intervention, and the potential stabilization of Venezuela’s energy output, as a net neutral or positive for global liquidity flows.
Energy Markets: The Reconstruction Play
While crypto held the line, energy markets are bracing for volatility. Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels), yet produces a fraction of its potential. Trump’s explicit directive for U.S. firms to “start making money for the country” signals a potential flood of CapEx into the region. Analysts project this could inject a short-term risk premium into WTI crude, followed by a longer-term supply glut if American majors successfully rehabilitate the Orinoco Belt.
For now, the “Maduro Premium” is gone. The market is now pricing in the “Reconstruction Trade.”
